mccain-palin campaign. stay warm, dry and safe. we'll see you tomorrow night. thanks for joining us. >> jennifer: i'm jennifer granholm. tonight in "the war room," can you feel that? that subtle change in attitude? it's called a momentum shift. >> obama: governor christie throughout this process has been responsive and aggressive and i just want to thank him for his extraordinary leadership. >> i cannot thank the president enough for his compassion for the people of our state. >> jennifer: that's called political euphoria occurring when state, local, and federal officials of both parties work together to do what is in the

best interests of the people. let's hope it is contagious. [♪ theme music ♪] >> jennifer: today is a great day to be a democrat, and progressive. it is going to be a great night in "the war room" all of you political junkies. sit back and get ready for some political euphoria. there are a whole batch of swing-state polls out today and the president is up in the vast majority. the president now has a five-point lead in ohio. we're going to turn ohio blue and you just keep watching these numbers up here. the president has a two-point lead, again, according to polls

today, in virginia a very narrow one-point lead in florida. and according to a market university poll he is up by eight points. in colorado the president is up by three points? ohio, he is up by two points. and the most recent polls in nevada and new hampshire have him up there as well. check this out! 332 electoral votes to 188 according -- i think i just knocked that out. to 191. that's from today. the only swing state that shows he is down -- actually tied today but down over all is in north carolina. and then there's pennsylvania.

the romney camp made a $120,000 ad buy yesterday and three super pacs supporting romney have poured $6 million into pennsylvania just this week. why, you might ask? well, it's all part of their plan to quote, expand the electoral map. the president is up by four points in pennsylvania and they are still pouring all of that money into it. the poll out today was a franklin and marshall poll. and david axelrod placed an interesting range isser on whether the participate would take minnesota, michigan or

pennsylvania. >> i will shave off my mustache if we lose any of those states. >> jennifer: that put david axelrod on the side of the american mustache lobby. and the american mustache institute put out a statement saying, quote . . . >> jennifer: all kidding aside, the -- honestly -- the very serious nate silver now predicts the president has a 78.4% chance of winning the election. nate silver looks at this huge mess of polls and pulls out which have historically been the

most reliable and weighs them based on their representtive sample, and weighs them based upon their polling accuracy and polling method and the party dentation of that state's electorate, and the political contributions in each state, and the favorability of both candidates. early voting, that also seems to be bearing him out. across the swing states the president leads by between 2 and 26 points among early voters. okay. all of that great political euphoria aside, we can't get ahead of ourselves, because there is one thing that could bring us down from that political euphoria which is the popular vote. the national polls show now an extremely tight race. two polls have a tie.

so the popular vote could still go either way. let's take a look at that. on the national map. i want to -- i want to emphasize that i'm looking at the national map because of hurricane sandy and how hurricane sandy could play a role in the popular vote. let's take a look at new york and particularly in nasa county right next to new york city. that's on long island. almost a million people there lost power. the long island power authority said it could take up to ten days to restore power in nasa county. voters there went for the president last time. it's a big county and now new york city, next it to new york city where about 2 million people lost power,

manman has about 8% of the state's population and in the last election it went 86% for the president. these are all blue for a reason and they were all hit by hurricane sandy. let me go over to new jersey to essex county new jersey. thousands of people still without power. that county has 9.4% of the state's total pop lair and they went for the president by 76% in 2008. so if they can't vote because of the storm damage we could see a dip nationally on the democratic side in the popular vote. now if you go back to the south and the middle of the country where all of this red is there is an expectation in those red areas that there will be a big turn out, and that could spell trouble for the president's chances at winning the popular

vote, even if he does win the electoral college. so what happens up here in this hurricane sandy area could impact significant contactedly. and remember in 2000 al gore won the popular vote by 543,000 votes. so listen up all of you progressives in non-swing states, your vote does matter. so now for more on how superstorm sandy might impact next week's election, i'm joined by current tv correspondent david shuster. david we're very interested in what -- who is going to be able to vote on tuesday. so first what is it like on the ground now?% >> well there is still a lot of frustration out there, particularly on the southern half of manhattan. and then also again in nasa county, long island they are having a difficult time clearing some of the roads.

they need to do that first before the power crews can work on the substations and utility lines, so there's a process there, and when you hear the power company say, oh, it might be four or five days you talk to elected officials and they said know, it may be more like seven to ten days. >> jennifer: so the counties that we talked about, and new york city, man -- manhattan, how are they preparing for election day? >> every one of them said what they are doing is first trying to bring in generators to make sure they can have essential i will portable power brought into the precinct locations. if the precinct locations are damaged or underwater they will have signs directing the people where to go or in some cases

they will have tents set up. if they didn't have electricity, they will have people cast ballots and then the ballots will be transported to an area where they do have power. >> jennifer: david so people obviously have very big issues to deal with. how many people could realistically be impacted if the electricity is not on? >> governor, i had an opportunity to talk to somebody who has been an expert of these kinds of things. when you are talk about extreme disasters, you tend to have possible drop off of as much as 50%. 50% of the people who might otherwise vote, if they don't have power at home, it's not unreasonable to think that can going to make pass on this

election, and the counties that you mentioned, under normal circumstances, the democrats should run up a net margin of about 500,000 votes. so if you take away say, the 50% that don't participate, and you assume the lack of participation will be on both sides, it is not unreasonable to assume that president obama may only have a net gain of about 250,000. and the number you mentioned that was think difference between al gore and george w. bush. and if republicans are not going to try to make an issue to try to deelectoralize president obama, then we have a flood here. >> jennifer: all right. thank you so much david. clearly the electoral vote looks great. the popular vote, not so much

and especially if these blue voters in new jersey and new york aren't able to get to the polls, that means progressives where every you have got to vote. your vote really does matter why you ask? because the right-wing will fight his agenda at every turn. losing the popular vote gives them actually a shred of legitimacy, a leg to stand on and it's not going to matter to fox news that george bush lost the popular vote back in 2000 so bottom line even if you are in the deepest blue or deepest red, get to the polls! send in your ballots! your vote absolutely matters if

you care about the president's ability to carry out his promises in his sec term. coming up bipartisan gets a much-needed shot in the arm. president obama visits new jersey with my new favorite governor, chris christie. it's time to start talking about the president's chances in florida on tuesday. we're just getting started in "the war room," stick around. stay tuned for the answer.

(vo) brought to you by metlife.

>> obama: what i can promise you is the federal government will be working as closely as possible with the state and local officials, and we will not quit until this is done. >> jennifer: president obama and new jersey's republican governor, chris christie visited the state today. governor christie is a high-profile surrogate for mitt romney, but you wouldn't know it from his praise of president obama. >> had a good someday with him. and i'm aware of all of the atmospherics, i'm not in a coma but the fact is, i don't care. when you have the responsibility that i have, it's much bigger than politics. >> jennifer: which brings me to my point. now my dad has always been my favorite republican. it pains me to say that he is going to be voting for mitt romney, dad. i have tried and tried, but

there's no persuading him. but now i have a second-favorite republican. chris christie. you all know that i'm a die-hard democrat, but i also like getting stuff done, and when chris christie keynote speaker at the rnc, when he puts the people of his state above the politics of his party, that makes me . . . proud. that's the way it should be. when chris christie praises the president for working with him in crisis it gives me hope that republicans might work with president obama in all of the crises of his second term. if chris christie can work with the president, maybe all hope is not lost for dc. crisis might even bring the

stanchest republicans together. democrats and republicans work side by side with common purpose. no one asks about trivial stuff like party affiliation. they have a much more important job to do, and their only label is american. just makes me proud to say it. so can we get some more chris christies up in here? can the dc republicans look to the bombastic yet utterly human governor of new jersey and say, hey, maybe that will work for us too. there are sure plenty of crises to rally around. we're challenged by external forces like a global economy and rising china, turmoil in the middle east. can't the republicans see that the chris christie model might just serve their purposes too.

i know chris christie is probably going to run for president in 2016 and feel the poll of the obstructionists in his party. i'm guessing that my admiration of him may be limited to this shining moment. but this moment is worth amplifying. hey, you will have a democratic party -- democratic president to deal with after tuesday. and the nation will still be facing plenty of big crises so watch out, maybe president obama is going to convince chris christie to barrel into your caucus and knock some sense into ya. and until then i hope you are taking note of what bipartisan leadership looks like. now mitt romney wants us to think he is bipartisan.

check out his new ad. >> romney: we have to work on a collaborative basis. look, the reason i'm in this race, is there are people that are really hurting today in our country. >> jennifer: coming from new york to tell us what romney is anything but what that ad says. michael welcome. >> it's my pleasure. thank you. i was kind of worried last week. this ad i think started airing on october 19th or 20th in swing states and he was making some in roads with it and but i do think now obama has been

appearing with chris christie and you laid it all out, but i think now that that has hand i think that takes away some of the edge of romney's argument for sure. >> jennifer: i agree, and the storm has shown that president obama is more of a uniter than mitt romney. i'm sure you would agree with me. >> i do. i do. >> jennifer: i love it when people come on and just agree with me. we live in this hyperpartisan world, and is this possible to bring everyone together? >> well, you know, what -- what romney -- >> jennifer: say, no, you have are not completely out of your mind, first. >> yeah. okay. i thought that went without saying -- but if you want me to say it of course you are not completely out of your mind. no, i wouldn't even say in fairness to romney but in semi

quasi defense of romney one mistake that obama made in the 2008 campaign is he said he was going to change the tone in washington. and every president says that. but the president does vice president the power to change the tone in washington. it takes two to consummate this tango, and obama tried. obama tried in many ways and at many different times as you know, the stimulus was more than one-third tax cuts he adopted a republican ideas for his health care reform. he went to republicans many times and said what will it take to get you to compromise with me on this bill and other bills,

and he got no votes at all. so the republican's position is disrupt, be destructive, watch things fall apart, and then point their finger at him. >> jennifer: i'm curious what you think -- i have this theory that -- again, i could be all wet, but in the theme of hurricane sandy that bloomberg and chris christie who both need now significant investments to shore up their infrastructure to make sure these rolling storms which this won't be the last one since climate change is happening, that they might help to lead a charge in congress to do something finally about climate change. do you think? >> well, of course i'll begin my comments by saying you are

not all wet. [ laughter ] >> jennifer: you are learning so well. >> see, i'm not that stupid but i'm not that optimistic about this either. the congressional republicans are a different kettle of fish than governors. governors have to be pragmatic governors have to solve problems, they have to be non-idealogical in certain ways as christie is being now. congressional republicans respond to their base, and they are all afraid they are going to get primaries from the far right. i'm sure you read a quote from barry frank, when an interviewer asked him are they all michelle obama? and he said no half of them are michelle obama, and some of them are afraid they are going to get a primary from michelle obama.

and that dictates how they behave. >> jennifer: thank you so much michael. oh florida you are so close why don't you just on board, and we'll all start the party tuesday night.

♪ >> jennifer: let's take a closer look at one of the swing states where polls are showing president obama gaining, a new, very slight edge but gaining nonetheless and that's in florida. as of today the president is up by one point there, that's according to a new poll out today. romney was up as recently as this weekend. and a week ago republicans had a significant advantage in mail in ballots. but when early voting started last week there were lines around the block. >> we cut the typical advantage the republicans have by about 85% going into saturday the start of early vote. over 48 hours, we blew the doors

off of early voting in 48 hours and took the advantage that republicans had and eliminated it. six days of early voting gone. >> jennifer: that is such great news. and as of today here is where early voting stands in florida. democrats make up 43% of all early voters so far. republicans make up 41%. big improve. now remember, early voting started on saturday, obviously today is wednesday, so they have had four full days of early voting. and today there was a leaked memo which shows how concerned the republicaned are about all of this. a local news station uncovered the memo and it says this, quote . . .

sweeter words were never spoken. joining me now to talk about the democratic round game in florida, is robert wexler. he represented florida's 19th district for seven terms. he is now a president of the s daniel abraham center for peace. thank you so much for joining us inside "the war room." >> thank you for having me. >> jennifer: you bet. so what are you hearing? >> i was in florida over the weekend, and there is a palpable change. there is no doubt about that.

the south floridians were very impressed with the president's knowledge and credibility on foreign affairs, especially his strong statements on his steadfast support for israel, all were very significant in terms of increasing the excitement on the democratic side, and there's a palpable feeling of momentum for the president in florida, and one of the big stories on election tonight will be the come-from-behind victory for the president in florida. >> jennifer: so are you saying the third debate really helped to solidify particularly the jewish vote in florida? >> no doubt particularly the president's very strong statements on israel, his recitation of his visit to

israel, where we visited one of the southern israeli towns suffering from the bombardment of hamas. these were themed that caused the jewish community in south florida in particular to understand and remember why they supported the president in such large numbers in 22008. >> jennifer: all right. it is interesting because i think there's a momentum shift we're seeing as well. romney was in florida today, and the political director told reporters on a conference call that quote romney will win election day by double digits in florida. so why would romney be campaigning in a state that he is going to win by double digits. do you think this is all just

bluster? >> oh, it is bluster. and i think he was in florida because of the potential damage on his stance on fema. florida more than anywhere else are particularly sensitive when it comes to national disasters. and floridians are very aware of the positives and some of the shortcomings of federal relief. but they do appear rate the good that can come from a federally managed system. and that's what we are seeing this week throughout the mid-atlantic. and governor's position where he stated it in the past that if he were elected, he would eliminate fema or reduce significantly the federal role in emergency response and i

think that's something that i think floridians will shake their head and say you got to be kidding me. >> jennifer: that's fascinating that the notion of privatizing fema or pushing it on the state, will have an impact in florida. are they now considering which one of these candidates would act in a time of crisis? >> i think they will, and it's only natural but let me say this, the role of the state and the local officials are enormously important of course in any emergency response and the first responders whether they be firemen or health-care workers, law enforcement, they are local people employed by local governments. is no replacement for local or state officials, and in florida

we have some tremendous responses by both sides in all of these areas, but there is also a very special role for the federal government, and when we sigh in new york the subway system, the element of infrastructure that will be required to be built the financing that will be required. the federal government no doubt will have to play an important role. also the logistics of moving huge amounts of food and equipment that is needed oftentimes the federal government can be a partner with the local officials. governor christie talked about the role of the us army of engineers. and again, this is a rue neek role of the government. >> jennifer: well, it will be very interesting to see. i strongly believe the momentum is in the president's favor in

florida. glad you are confirming that. thank you so much for joining manager inside of "the war room." >> joy: up next heading out to the polls with six days left. and later, negative ads, they are ugly depressing and 100% effective. we'll tell you why when we continue our special series.

[ ryan ] it doesn't get any better than endless shrimp at red lobster. you can mix and match all day! [ male announcer ] don't miss red lobster's endless shrimp just $14.99! try as much as you like, any way you like! like parmesan crusted shrimp. hurry in, offer ends soon! i'm ryan isabell and i see food differently.

[ male announcer ] this is karen and jeremiah. they don't know it yet but they're gonna fall in love get married, have a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money. [ dog barks ] because right after they get married they'll find some retirement people who are paid on salary not commission. they'll get straightforward guidance and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. >> jennifer: so for several months now, christine pelosi and i have been trying to get duf sundheim to throw his support behind the president. tonight is our final penitentiary. welcome back to you both. duf are you ready to say uncle? >> you know what, i didn't find the fact that you called the

fact that your father your favorite republican, but when you put christie ahead of me it hurt my feelings. >> jennifer: all right. epic fail on my part. >> here you can have the halloween candy. okay. chris christie had a beautiful moment today. not only did barack obama look very presidential but chris christie took a tentative step towards 2016. >> jennifer: yeah, let's just say that duf could have a beautiful moment right here. >> i think that was back in april 15th that you were right. >> jennifer: let me do something here, duf. vice president biden had a very interesting line about mitt romney today. take a listen in florida. >> his plans are sketchy, they are etch-a-sketchy. that's what it is all about, man. they told us this was coming.

>> jennifer: duf before i get your reaction to this. i want to play a clip from the very first time the two of you were on this show on march 21st. >> so what do you think, etch-a-sketch -- didn't that just totally take his day down? >> i think we're not going to be talking about that and it will have no impact 48 hours from now. >> that's not what i meant. >> jennifer: any election predictions. >> no. we're going to keep the house. >> jennifer: well you might have something to say about that ms. pelosi. >> i think it is very nip and tuck. we have to make shire that women, latinos, everybody vote. the particular programs we have had in place peer to peer

neighbor to neighbor has been very effective. it's a great ground game and our candidates are running very strongly, it just comes down to turn out. and the one thing we can't predict is the size of the check the super pacs might decide to write. >> if you look at the overall numbers, the undecided is very small. if you look at the independents it is like 16 to 18%. >> jennifer: what do they need to know? honestly. but how did you feel about romney being able to get out on the trail, and the president had to stay back in and be presidential. >> i think each of these things

happen, but they don't matter as much as we think they do. >> well sandy was a major event because it showed efficient effective bipartisan government and i think that was good for obama. what the president needs to do for the next few days -- if you are listening, tuning in chicago -- is to stay elevated. stay elevated. he reached higher ground. he need to stay there. biden and clinton can do that but the president should stay presidential for the next few days. you watch those speeches in 2008 and look at what obama is said it is really about hope and change. there is no doubt. >> jennifer: well, today. but you had an interesting blog

post about the event with mitt romney and soliciting donations. they purchase $5,000 worth of donations from wal-mart. and when people came in the door, there was a volunteer who was directing them to the donation table and saying just get one of those donations so you can give it up front, so it was sort of this staged thing, and then they slowed down the packing of the boxes, so it could look line mitt romney -- >> you never do theater? i'm shocked. [overlapping speakers]. >> i'm shocked that there is staging going on at political events. >> no, you are right. staging happens at political events. and we were told this was a

relief rally. >> right so they were restoring what people should do for overs. >> no the red cross said we done want supplies. >> 30 seconds, you two, i need a me diction, duf, and your credibility is on the line. >> i think it is going to be very close. >> jennifer: are we going to do 300 electoral votes? >> no, but i predict a strong center left-wing for the united states of america. >> jennifer: that is duf sundheim, and christine pell low sa thanks you guys so much. up next negative ads are cold and calculating and have been around longer than you would think. >> every politician wants you to

believe that richard nixon is, quote, serious. it's a step towards normal. it's why allstate catastrophe teams not only have hot coffee and help for grownups... they've also handed out more than twelve thousand teddy bears to kids. people come first... everything else is second. that's allstate's stand. are you in good hands?

♪ >> read my lips. ♪ >> obama took gm and chrysler into bankruptcy and sold chrysler to china who will start building jeeps. >> jennifer: fact check.org calls the commercial deceptive, misleading and out-right false. those truth-seeking organizations are really a relatively new phenomenon and as barry link tells us in part three of our series the selling of the president, in the past

many false claims went unchecked. >> michael dukakis saw his fortunes contain income 1988 when the opposition aired this spot. >> michael dukakis has opposed almost every defense system we have developed. >> this was a photo opportunity staged by the dukakis campaign. the bush campaign brilliantly took the footage and used it against dukakis. the election results actually were swayed by the tv commercial. the fact listed were exaggerations, and dukakis actually answered them. there was a countered a that responded to the charges, but

that didn't really matter because what really mattered was the image. in 1988 the media wasn't doing fact checks so ad makers could create images that were loosely based in truth and then exaggerate them. >> the ad proved that in politics, some of the most painful wounds are self inflicted. >> jennifer: for sure. for more about negative commercials we're going to turn to nashville, tennessee, john geer who is also the author of negative defense. welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> jennifer: you admit to

approving of negative ads. >> you think about the due cuss cuss ad he was trying to argue that he was strong on defense, and the bush administration pointed out the he wasn't. and exsal ration cuts both ways. >> jennifer: i'm sure that is true. 80% of theed a by president obama this time around are negative. while 84% of mitt romney's are negative. is that more than in the past? >> yeah it's a lot more. there has been a steady increase in negativity since 1960. 2008 broke the record at that

point in time and it was about 65% in 2008, and now it is going to be above 80. and it will going to continue until the very end, because these parties both have problems and we have super pacs that have money to burn. >> and these things must work right? >> well they wshg, but in this particular campaign, there are so few undecided that i expect that there are millions and millions of dollars being spent without much movement. >> jennifer: what role -- obviously the media has a role -- and the news media has a role in there. >> i think you hit on a very tab

issue. in 1988 advertisement started to get the at attention of the news media, and ever since 1988, they have been given tremendous amounts of coverage. but journalists only cover negative ads. that's what gets fens and gets journal lists talking. it is one of the ironies of the system. >> jennifer: all right. that's john geer author of in defense of political negativity. this is "the war room," and it's only on current tv.

cu >> jennifer: happy halloween everybody. it has been a spooky campaign but we're finding some humor in

it. he is not just a great writer but he is a pretty good carver too. he tells me he tried to put president obama on the left side, but romney kept moving towards the middle. we have great swag. big flip flops, and of course our great chia pet heads. barack obama and mitt romney and their hair is not growing very well but there you have it. check us out online at current.com/thewarroom. thank you so much for joining us in "the war room," and as we leave you, a shout out to the local team here in san francisco. congrats to the giants and to